author(s)
Ritwik Mondal and N Pemola Devi

abstract
The changes in the correlation between temperature, rainfall and several arboviruses and their vectors have direct impact on population size, maturation period, feeding habits and survival rate of Aedes mosquitoes. The present study focusses on the role of meteorological factors contributing towards the fluctuation and magnitude of adult Aedes species abundance in order to predict dengue cases in Dehradun (Uttarakhand). Excel spreadsheet 2013 was used to perform the correlation and multiple regression analysis and to validate models, MedCalc software was used. The highest correlation between maximum temperature and Aedes population were found at 5-lag week (r=0.68) and for minimum temperature found in 1-lag week (r=0.82). Relative humidity and Aedes abundance were in highest correlation in 0-lag week (r=-0.06 for 0719h and r=0.57 for 1419h). Rainfall was also found best correlated with Aedes mosquitoes during 0-lag week (r=0.49). The two meteorological variables {minimum temperature 1-lag week and relative humidity (0719h) 0-lag week} that had the highest correlation with mosquitoes (r=-0.57 and r=-0.06, respectively) were selected to create the models. The model 1 predicted values were found more accurate in terms of showing the trends of mosquito abundance over weeks as compared to model 2. The predictive model developed in this study could partly inform decision makers for determining when to initiate control measures to minimize the likelihood of dengue risk.