author(s)
BR Soumya, PD Kamala Jayanthi, CM Kalleshwarswamy and Abraham Verghese

abstract
The present investigation was carried out to predict the Dudua aprobola Meyrick population before its infestation on mango ecosystem will contribute to the success of IPM programs in India. The experiment was conducted at mango orchard of Indian Institute of Horticultural Research during 2014 - 2015. The study explored the scope of using host-plant phenology variables in addition to abiotic variables for fine tuning the current system of D. aprobola population prediction. Variables representing host-plant (Mango, Mangifera indica) phenology and weather were used and compared as components in step-wise regression to develop a comprehensive forecasting model for the pest. The combined equation models of phenology and phenology-weather variables gave the best fit to predict the highest variability in D.aprobola population both in vegetative (R² = 0.75) and reproductive (R² = 0. 46) stage respectively. By using these variables the emerging pest, D. aprobola on mango can be predicted well before its severe attack.